Final 2008 US Presidential Election (and predictions) thread

Aaron Haynes · 11-04-2008, 05:07 AM

My predictions:

Presidential:
Obama 353 - 185 McCain

Obama
Kerry states plus NV, CO, NM, FL, OH, VA, IA, NC

Senate:
Democrats 58 - 42 Republicans
counts Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman with the Democrats (yes, I know Lieberman might switch parties)

Losing Democrats
Franken to Coleman in MN
Martin to Chambliss in GA
Lunsford to McConnell in KY
Musgrove to Wicker in MS

House:
Too much damn work to put together.

Feel free to try your own, using the RCP map generator, and Electoral-Vote, Pollster, and 538.com for poll trends and predictions. This will be a lot easier if you've been obsessively following these anyway, like me.

If you live in the United States and you haven't voted yet, go do it. I don't care who it's for.

Aaron Haynes · 11-04-2008, 05:19 AM

Hahaha, I just realized my map is identical to the one on Electoral-Vote, but I put it together on the RCP map maker myself. Neat.

Breed · 11-04-2008, 05:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aaron Haynes

House:

there I did the work for you you lazy FUCK.

Aaron Haynes · 11-04-2008, 05:28 AM

House is going blue.

Gray Fox · 11-04-2008, 05:39 AM

god help me if McConnel wins, but Lunsford kind of sucks as well. Eh, that's how all elections go.

Scarecrow · 11-04-2008, 06:56 AM

This may be more wishful thinking more than anything, but I'm thinking Obama might squeak Indiana through. Their GOTV operation is in full force here. I've gotten 3 fliers hung on my front door, 3 in my mail box, and 3 phone calls from the campaign in the last week and a half. And from what I can tell, the Evangelical community here, which is big in the areas surrounding my city, isn't the most enthusiastic bunch for McCain. They'll vote for him, but almost reluctantly. So if turn out among Obama supporters is high, the lack of enthusiasm on the other side MIGHT just get him through.

Aaron Haynes · 11-04-2008, 07:03 AM

There is no GOTV effort from the McCain campaign in Indiana, from what I've heard. Not just a crappy one -- none.

Scarecrow · 11-04-2008, 07:09 AM

The most I've gotten from the McCain side are a few Bill Ayres fliers. And the GOP office here always looks quiet whenever I pass. It's like they're not even here.

Whitey · 11-04-2008, 01:11 PM

If Al Franken loses, this election won't be so bad after all.

I think McCain will take North Carolina. And I base that opinion on the fact that McCain is winning the bumper sticker battle quite comfortably. At least in my area.

Aaron Haynes · 11-04-2008, 01:22 PM

Franken would be icing on the cake.

I don't mind if John Murtha loses, though. You can have that race.

Kevitus · 11-04-2008, 02:42 PM

OBAMA'S GONNA MAKE IT.

Pizza The Hut · 11-04-2008, 03:10 PM

I have not voted yet..going to after work.

How is Missouri looking? Will my vote matter?

Phil Williamson · 11-04-2008, 04:36 PM

Your vote will absolutely matter in Missouri, it might be the closest state. Where do you live in Missouri by the way? I thought I was the only one.

My prediction:

Presidential:
Obama 355 - 183 McCain

Obama
Kerry states plus NV, CO, NM, FL, OH, VA, IA, MO, ND, MT

Senate:
Democrats 59 - 41 Republicans

Losing Democrats
Martin to Chambliss in GA
Lunsford to McConnell in KY
Musgrove to Wicker in MS

although I'm really pulling for Martin over Chambliss or at least a runoff trigger.

for the House I'll just go ahead and throw out net Democratic pickup of 31

Shaun · 11-04-2008, 04:50 PM

I'm completely clueless about anyone in the senate or house. I don't know how you guys keep up. As for the presidential election, I barely meet my own standards of "informed." But it's probably more than you can say for most people.

anyway, I voted for Obama, and not much else. Not that it matters since my state always votes democratic. SIGH

Phil Williamson · 11-04-2008, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun

I'm completely clueless about anyone in the senate or house. I don't know how you guys keep up.

well following the senate is just the equivalent of following three or four sports teams in terms of number of people, and with much less turnover!

Whitey · 11-04-2008, 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aaron Haynes

I don't mind if John Murtha loses, though. You can have that race.

By all means, keep him on. Lately he's been one of the GOP's biggest assets. He's kinda like the Democratic Party's Rick Santorum.

Aaron Haynes · 11-04-2008, 08:48 PM

That'd be Pete Stark. John Murtha is more like our Ted Stevens. Pre-conviction, of course.

Aaron Haynes · 11-04-2008, 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun

I'm completely clueless about anyone in the senate or house. I don't know how you guys keep up. As for the presidential election, I barely meet my own standards of "informed." But it's probably more than you can say for most people.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp200...s/Nov04-s.html

A quick, effective run-down of the close Senate races.

Bobby Swisha · 11-04-2008, 09:25 PM

I predict McCain will win.

Bobby Swisha · 11-04-2008, 09:26 PM

Actually Obama is going to be giving his winning speech tonight not 15 minutes away from where I live. I don't have tickets but some of my friends do. I might still go out tonight and just videotape the crowds and stuff.

Howell · 11-04-2008, 10:15 PM

I'm pretty sure Obama is going to win.

Aaron Haynes · 11-04-2008, 10:44 PM

Results coming in from Indiana. Obama holding at a roughly 3 point lead with 2% of the vote in.

It begins.

James Burgon · 11-04-2008, 10:50 PM

Space Goat · 11-04-2008, 11:17 PM

I didn't think this stuff was really wide spread, but I got a call on my answering machine yesterday reminding me to vote, and it also told me "if you're a registered republican, your designated voting day is Tuesday 11/4/2008, and if you're a registered democrat, your designated voting day is Wednesday 11/5/2008".

Forget about Osama Bin Laden, how about we track down and kill the sons of bitches who intentionally spread this kind of misinformation?

Orcus · 11-04-2008, 11:22 PM

Holy shit that is dirty.

11-04-2008, 05:07 AM	#1
Aaron Haynes Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 15,125	Final 2008 US Presidential Election (and predictions) thread My predictions: Presidential: Obama 353 - 185 McCain Obama Kerry states plus NV, CO, NM, FL, OH, VA, IA, NC Senate: Democrats 58 - 42 Republicans counts Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman with the Democrats (yes, I know Lieberman might switch parties) Losing Democrats Franken to Coleman in MN Martin to Chambliss in GA Lunsford to McConnell in KY Musgrove to Wicker in MS House: Too much damn work to put together. Feel free to try your own, using the RCP map generator, and Electoral-Vote, Pollster, and 538.com for poll trends and predictions. This will be a lot easier if you've been obsessively following these anyway, like me. If you live in the United States and you haven't voted yet, go do it. I don't care who it's for.

11-04-2008, 05:39 AM	#5
Gray Fox Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2001 Posts: 2,228	god help me if McConnel wins, but Lunsford kind of sucks as well. Eh, that's how all elections go.
Gray Fox Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2001 Posts: 2,228

11-04-2008, 06:56 AM	#6
Scarecrow Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 4,217	This may be more wishful thinking more than anything, but I'm thinking Obama might squeak Indiana through. Their GOTV operation is in full force here. I've gotten 3 fliers hung on my front door, 3 in my mail box, and 3 phone calls from the campaign in the last week and a half. And from what I can tell, the Evangelical community here, which is big in the areas surrounding my city, isn't the most enthusiastic bunch for McCain. They'll vote for him, but almost reluctantly. So if turn out among Obama supporters is high, the lack of enthusiasm on the other side MIGHT just get him through.
Scarecrow Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 4,217

11-04-2008, 07:09 AM	#8
Scarecrow Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 4,217	The most I've gotten from the McCain side are a few Bill Ayres fliers. And the GOP office here always looks quiet whenever I pass. It's like they're not even here.
Scarecrow Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 4,217

11-04-2008, 01:11 PM	#9
Whitey Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2001 Posts: 6,536	If Al Franken loses, this election won't be so bad after all. I think McCain will take North Carolina. And I base that opinion on the fact that McCain is winning the bumper sticker battle quite comfortably. At least in my area.
Whitey Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2001 Posts: 6,536

11-04-2008, 05:19 AM	#2
Aaron Haynes Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 15,125	Hahaha, I just realized my map is identical to the one on Electoral-Vote, but I put it together on the RCP map maker myself. Neat.

11-04-2008, 05:28 AM	#4
Aaron Haynes Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 15,125	House is going blue.

11-04-2008, 07:03 AM	#7
Aaron Haynes Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 15,125	There is no GOTV effort from the McCain campaign in Indiana, from what I've heard. Not just a crappy one -- none.

11-04-2008, 01:22 PM	#10
Aaron Haynes Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 15,125	Franken would be icing on the cake. I don't mind if John Murtha loses, though. You can have that race.

11-04-2008, 02:42 PM	#11
Kevitus Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 4,542	OBAMA'S GONNA MAKE IT.
Kevitus Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 4,542

11-04-2008, 03:10 PM	#12
Pizza The Hut Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 10,633	I have not voted yet..going to after work. How is Missouri looking? Will my vote matter?

11-04-2008, 04:36 PM	#13
Phil Williamson Super Moderator Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 16,900	Your vote will absolutely matter in Missouri, it might be the closest state. Where do you live in Missouri by the way? I thought I was the only one. My prediction: Presidential: Obama 355 - 183 McCain Obama Kerry states plus NV, CO, NM, FL, OH, VA, IA, MO, ND, MT Senate: Democrats 59 - 41 Republicans Losing Democrats Martin to Chambliss in GA Lunsford to McConnell in KY Musgrove to Wicker in MS although I'm really pulling for Martin over Chambliss or at least a runoff trigger. for the House I'll just go ahead and throw out net Democratic pickup of 31

11-04-2008, 04:50 PM	#14
Shaun Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2001 Posts: 17,881	I'm completely clueless about anyone in the senate or house. I don't know how you guys keep up. As for the presidential election, I barely meet my own standards of "informed." But it's probably more than you can say for most people. anyway, I voted for Obama, and not much else. Not that it matters since my state always votes democratic. SIGH
Shaun Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2001 Posts: 17,881

11-04-2008, 08:48 PM	#17
Aaron Haynes Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 15,125	That'd be Pete Stark. John Murtha is more like our Ted Stevens. Pre-conviction, of course.

11-04-2008, 09:25 PM	#19
Bobby Swisha Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 46,012	I predict McCain will win.

11-04-2008, 09:26 PM	#20
Bobby Swisha Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 46,012	Actually Obama is going to be giving his winning speech tonight not 15 minutes away from where I live. I don't have tickets but some of my friends do. I might still go out tonight and just videotape the crowds and stuff.

11-04-2008, 10:15 PM	#21
Howell Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 2,290	I'm pretty sure Obama is going to win.
Howell Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 2,290

11-04-2008, 10:44 PM	#22
Aaron Haynes Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 15,125	Results coming in from Indiana. Obama holding at a roughly 3 point lead with 2% of the vote in. It begins.

11-04-2008, 10:50 PM	#23
James Burgon Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2001 Posts: 8,689

11-04-2008, 11:17 PM	#24
Space Goat Administrator Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 6,042	I didn't think this stuff was really wide spread, but I got a call on my answering machine yesterday reminding me to vote, and it also told me "if you're a registered republican, your designated voting day is Tuesday 11/4/2008, and if you're a registered democrat, your designated voting day is Wednesday 11/5/2008". Forget about Osama Bin Laden, how about we track down and kill the sons of bitches who intentionally spread this kind of misinformation?

11-04-2008, 11:22 PM	#25
Orcus Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 8,146	Holy shit that is dirty.
Orcus Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 8,146